Weekend Thread | Wknd #'s A:IW 61.8, LOTP 18.5, BI 16.5, OB 10.1, AQP 6.4, IFP 3.7, R 3.4, T 2.2

[a2k]

55 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I take it that the 19.5 number is for IW, so, slightly higher MD drop than GOTG 2, but an around ~62.5 weekend would put it at a 45.5% drop, a better overall hold than Guardians' 46.9%. Sadly, DP2 will prevent that it has better legs than GOTG2, but still, if it drops 55% or anything under that, 5th place of all time DOM seems like a sure thing. A dead-on 55% drop against DP2 (which is, honestly, one of the most optimistic scenarios as DP2 is gonna be a 130-150M piece of direct competition, R-rated or not) would get it to around 665 range following GOTG2's pre-Memorial Day weekend multiplier. Better than that and it surely reaches 670+. 56-60% drop puts it in the 650's. Over 60% means under 650.

 

Now, one could say that, with its very strong drops, Avengers could have a similar hold to Guardians' when Wonder Woman opened (52.9%). However, WW was heavily female skewing even on OW, and GOTG2 was very family/female-driven as well, so there was space for the two to co-exist. Their audiences were overall broader, while I feel like IW and DP2 overlap more. Not to mention that DP2 will be a much bigger opener than WW was. But on the other hand, GOTG2 did come off the inflated Memorial Day weekend result, AND DP2 could actually benefit IW as kids may buy tickets for IW only to sneak into DP2. So yeah, this is gonna be the test of tests for IW.

CW legs (1.8x+ the 3rd weekend) from now on give AIW 665. Really think that's the floor. It's been trending far better but bring it down to CW legs due to competition. Sub-650, failing to add 102 after a 62 weekend seems impossible.

[MCKillswitch123]

16 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

CW legs (1.8x+ the 3rd weekend) from now on give AIW 665. Really think that's the floor. It's been trending far better but bring it down to CW legs due to competition. Sub-650, failing to add 102 after a 62 weekend seems impossible.

If it drops over 60% (my scenario for sub-650, as I mentioned), that's under CW legs technically  Yeah, it has trended a lot better, but at the same time, DP2 is gonna hit it hard, so I'm not putting any possibilities aside here.

 

Either that, or my calculations are just off

Edited May 14, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Jessie said:

How do I find the old star wars thread? (TFA)

 

Here you go Jessie:

 

 

[CoolioD1]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Here you go Jessie:

 

 

Wow just looking through; my joke post six years ago

 

nothing gets past me.

[Jessie]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Here you go Jessie:

 

 

Thank you, couldn't for the life of me work out how to find it

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, A2k Raptor said:

CW legs (1.8x+ the 3rd weekend) from now on give AIW 665. Really think that's the floor. It's been trending far better but bring it down to CW legs due to competition. Sub-650, failing to add 102 after a 62 weekend seems impossible.

I'll just repost what I've said on the OT:

 

I still maintain that Infinity War is on course of topping Black Panther when it's all said and done. People forget how Summer is good to tentpoles that break records like Infinity War. Yes, it doesn't have the advantage of an off-season breakout / holiday release, but it's still powerful enough to make an impression.

 

It won't have the luxury of Black Panther's insane legs, but it doesn't need to:

 

Black Panther's legs are around 3.46x from its opening weekend. The Avengers legs was 3x. Infinity War is still performing well above The Avengers and actually almost edging out Black Panther at same time on its run. I fully expect Infinity War to keep going over The Avengers and closer to Black Panther's numbers than most expect from here on out. TA made more $166m after it's third weekend, Black Panther is going to make more than $200m. I fully expect Infinity War to gross over $166m and maybe even defy Black Panther's late legs once the schools are out, so I have IW grossing around $150m to $200m more once it's all said an done, range of $698m to $748m.

 

So what I'm seeing for Infinity War ranges aroun 2.7x-2.9x. 

 

[harrycaul]

I'm enjoying the cognitive dissonance of the MCU fans.

 

IW is going to keep having good legs!

 

BP will be the top movie of 2018!

 

At least one of these things isn't true.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

I'm enjoying the cognitive dissonance of the MCU fans.

 

IW is going to keep having good legs!

 

BP will be the top movie of 2018!

 

At least one of these things isn't true.

AIW can keep having good legs, beat GOTG2's 2.66x (2nd best MCU sequel multi; CA2 best at 2.73x) and end with 688-701 (2.67-2.72x) behind BP.

[MrPink]

Just now, A2k Raptor said:

AIW can keep having good legs, beat GOTG2's 2.66x (2nd best MCU sequel multi; CA2 best at 2.73x) and end with 688-701 (2.67-2.72x) behind BP.

 

Why stop there, BP and AIW can finish with the exact same gross down to the very dollar so they can both be the top grossing films of 2018 and both have had good legs. It would be like the box office equivalent of the ending of the Notebook.  

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

I'm enjoying the cognitive dissonance of the MCU fans.

 

IW is going to keep having good legs!

 

BP will be the top movie of 2018!

 

At least one of these things isn't true.

Um, no...they can both be true...

 

Good/great doesn't not mean absolutely epic...

 

AIW DOES have good legs already...

 

BP has had an AMAZING/EPIC box office run and may be the top movie of 2018.

 

BOTH can be celebrated...it's a great year for supers fans again...great movies and great box office...we'll see if it continues...

[oMeriMombatti]

So Sherlock Holmes 3 has been dated for 25 Dec 2020. That's going to be quite a winter with Avatar, Sing 2 and one more Disney live action movie.

 

Also is there any thread open for it?

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, oMeriMombatti said:

So Sherlock Holmes 3 has been dated for 25 Dec 2020. That's going to be quite a winter with Avatar, Sing 2 and one more Disney live action movie.

 

Also is there any thread open for it?

you can discuss it in the Avatar 2 thread, you'll probably face Avatar bias though

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, oMeriMombatti said:

So Sherlock Holmes 3 has been dated for 25 Dec 2020. That's going to be quite a winter with Avatar, Sing 2 and one more Disney live action movie.

 

Also is there any thread open for it?

If Disney ends up buying Fox, that Disney live-action movie is probably getting moved, cause.... why the hell would you pit any of your films against your own giant December tentpole (Avatar 2)?

[harrycaul]

And everyone rushes to prove my point.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

So Sherlock Holmes 3 has been dated for 25 Dec 2020. That's going to be quite a winter with Avatar, Sing 2 and one more Disney live action movie.

 

Also is there any thread open for it?

There's one in the On the Lot section.

[IronJimbo]

12 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

So Sherlock Holmes 3 has been dated for 25 Dec 2020. That's going to be quite a winter with Avatar, Sing 2 and one more Disney live action movie.

 

Also is there any thread open for it?

Avatar opened against the first Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the chipmonks (sing equivalent).

 

As mckillswitch said I'm not so sure we're going to see a Disney live action up against it.

[Valonqar]

So has IW increased with actuals? 

[RandomCat]

3 hours ago, rukaio101 said:

SS succeeded because it had a fantastic marketing campaign that also made it look tonally and stylistically as different and unrelated to BvS as possible. WW succeeded because it took the sole unambiguously liked element from BvS, had the novelty factor of being the first female-led superhero movie in the post-Marvel era and, you know, was also really really good?

 

Justice League was the only one of those three movies openly advertised as a direct sequel to BvS. And while I agree the troubled production and lackluster marketing played a big role in its failure, it's also kinda silly to claim that the poor reception for BvS didn't have anything to do with it either. A movie does not end up with 1.99 legs if it's in any way well regarded by the GA, DVD sales be damned.

It shouldn't be forgotton that people buying on BR/DVD weren't buying the theatrically released movie, but the "Extended cut". Which was hyped as being "Look, a lot of stuff was cut, but here, buy it on DVD to get the good version"

Edited May 14, 2018 by RandomCat

[ThiagoMaia]

1 hour ago, harrycaul said:

I'm enjoying the cognitive dissonance of the MCU fans.

 

IW is going to keep having good legs!

 

BP will be the top movie of 2018!

 

At least one of these things isn't true.

Just wait until Ant-Man and the Wasp opens to 240M and has a shot at beating them both with good legs.

[ThiagoMaia]

53 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

If Disney ends up buying Fox, that Disney live-action movie is probably getting moved, cause.... why the hell would you pit any of your films against your own giant December tentpole (Avatar 2)?

Maybe because there are no weekends on which they don't have a huge tentpole opening...