Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings | Marvel Studios | 92% RT & 99% VA Score | ONLY IN THEATERS Sep 3 2021

[Lion Roar]

This talk about tv spot views is so weird to me. I'm a hardcore MCU fan and I've never once watched any tv spots on YouTube. Most people don't, we just watch the trailers(over and over again). 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Lion Roar said:

This talk about tv spot views is so weird to me. I'm a hardcore MCU fan and I've never once watched any tv spots on YouTube. Most people don't, we just watch the trailers(over and over again). 

It is a sort of approximate indicator for the MCU in that the bigger movies tend to have bigger views and likes for TV spots but yeah it doesn't mean a whole lot. I pay attention to those stats because I'm a little too obsessed lol. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Comparing trailers and teasers;
Teaser- 21m

Trailer- 14m

 

Eternals-23m

 

2019: Captain Marvel (Official trailer 2)- 51m
2019: Captain Marvel (Official trailer)- 60m
2018: Ant-Man and the Wasp (Official trailer 2)- 30.8m

2018: Ant-Man and Wasp (Official trailer)- 17m

2016: Doctor Strange (Official trailer 2)- 43,

2016: Doctor Strange (Teaser trailer)- 24m

2015: Ant-Man (Trailer 1)- 25m

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Comparing trailers and teasers;
Teaser- 21m

Trailer- 14m

 

Eternals-23m

 

2019: Captain Marvel (Official trailer 2)- 51m
2019: Captain Marvel (Official trailer)- 60m
2018: Ant-Man and the Wasp (Official trailer 2)- 30.8m

2018: Ant-Man and Wasp (Official trailer)- 17m

2016: Doctor Strange (Official trailer 2)- 43,

2016: Doctor Strange (Teaser trailer)- 24m

2015: Ant-Man (Trailer 1)- 25m

 

Yeah, it's not a great idea to compare trailers that have been out for several years. Per Wayback Machine in early October 2016, DS trailer 2 was at 16 million/166k likes. Probably things will look similar for the rest. 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Menor

[TwoMisfits]

It's gonna be such a weird movie to predict...

 

I think it's going low...but then I tell myself this is MCU, and they literally never go low...

 

But then again, they haven't really revved excitement for Phase 4 yet and everyone seems to be waiting for Spidey and/or Eternals for this MCU fever to go nuts again...part of me wonders if and how much the MCU base sees this as "placeholder" vs "essential"...and it doesn't help that I haven't been grabbed by a single trailer yet.

 

I also worry about what demos may or may not show up.  I thought the Asian demo would overindex for Space Jam 2 b/c of their NBA fan base - they didn't.  I thought they might overindex for Snake Eyes - they didn't.  So, if they continue to mostly stay home in 2021, well, I can't see this going above Black Widow, although that movie had the problem of 25+ women and kids staying home (which were needed to overindex to get the sky high number it didn't get)...and yes, I guess I should mention that if kids and moms also don't overindex (to all the recently released movie figures), this just can't be that high.  4 tickets make more money than 1, and if it's just dad or older bro at the theater, and mom and the kids are home, that's a big hit to box office.  And, without the 3 demos that have been missing most of this summer, I can't see this matching Black Widow b/c it's missing "the hook" to guarantee the uber-fan in the opening weekend seat (saying goodbye to a beloved character is just more "hook" that saying hello to a new one)...

 

I am fascinated by the presale tracking that's gonna start next week b/c it could go any way, but I think it's going low.  I saw the under $60M club today, and I'd have to be in that club as I sit here right now.  Heck, I might be in one that could go lower (like lowest ever Disney MCU opening weekend)...

[ThomasNicole]

40 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Comparing trailers and teasers;
Teaser- 21m

Trailer- 14m

 

Eternals-23m

 

2019: Captain Marvel (Official trailer 2)- 51m
2019: Captain Marvel (Official trailer)- 60m
2018: Ant-Man and the Wasp (Official trailer 2)- 30.8m

2018: Ant-Man and Wasp (Official trailer)- 17m

2016: Doctor Strange (Official trailer 2)- 43,

2016: Doctor Strange (Teaser trailer)- 24m

2015: Ant-Man (Trailer 1)- 25m

 

YouTube loses power every year and other platforms like Twitter is consistenly growing. For example despite lower YT views Eternals was in total numbers the second most viewed teaser in 24 hours for an "original" MCU IP, losing only for CM. 

 

If you comparing the actual likes, teaser for Shang and Eternals are actually way bigger than all the comparissons except CM.

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's gonna be such a weird movie to predict...

 

I think it's going low...but then I tell myself this is MCU, and they literally never go low...

 

But then again, they haven't really revved excitement for Phase 4 yet and everyone seems to be waiting for Spidey and/or Eternals for this MCU fever to go nuts again...part of me wonders if and how much the MCU base sees this as "placeholder" vs "essential"...and it doesn't help that I haven't been grabbed by a single trailer yet.

 

I also worry about what demos may or may not show up.  I thought the Asian demo would overindex for Space Jam 2 b/c of their NBA fan base - they didn't.  I thought they might overindex for Snake Eyes - they didn't.  So, if they continue to mostly stay home in 2021, well, I can't see this going above Black Widow, although that movie had the problem of 25+ women and kids staying home (which were needed to overindex to get the sky high number it didn't get)...and yes, I guess I should mention that if kids and moms also don't overindex (to all the recently released movie figures), this just can't be that high.  4 tickets make more money than 1, and if it's just dad or older bro at the theater, and mom and the kids are home, that's a big hit to box office.  And, without the 3 demos that have been missing most of this summer, I can't see this matching Black Widow b/c it's missing "the hook" to guarantee the uber-fan in the opening weekend seat (saying goodbye to a beloved character is just more "hook" that saying hello to a new one)...

 

I am fascinated by the presale tracking that's gonna start next week b/c it could go any way, but I think it's going low.  I saw the under $60M club today, and I'd have to be in that club as I sit here right now.  Heck, I might be in one that could go lower (like lowest ever Disney MCU opening weekend)...

I really doubt this have a shot surpassing BW.

 

I think around 60M for the 4 days is the most reasonable number. Still good but in line with everything against it (new IP, Delta peaking etc).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

This hitting 60m OW would arguably be the absolute strongest evidence of MCU brand. Even more than Guardians 1. I’d never doubt them again and would immediately consider Eternals for the 100m OW club. 
 

However, lowest MCU opening feels almost like a guarantee to me. That would be Hulk in 2008 with 55m but also not technically fair since it wasn’t totally established then, so next would be Ant-Man’s 57m in 2015. Anything higher would put it in the range of Phase 1 origins (65m for Thor and Captain America). 
 

I’m currently thinking 35m which fits current 2021 trends and Sept history but 40-50m range is what Disney and industry will probably expect/project.

I do not foresee Ant-Man’s 3.15 multiplier, will be closer to First Avenger’s 2.72, Thor’s 2.75 (Doctor Strange had a 2.74 and Cap Marvel had 2.78). 
 

So, 95-135m domestic is the (wide) range. 
 

 

 

[RRA]

I won’t get into data analytical debates about how excited or not people are about this title.

 

But at that date with the market as a mess and blah blah, even friggin The Batman sans Max would probably struggle (albeit theoretically not as much.)

 

Yes good thing about (for now) theater exclusivity in its favor. Downside? One less excuse bingo card to play. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Tickets go on sale next Monday.  

7 days for all these sub-$100M DOM or under $50M opening talk.

 

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by charlie Jatinder
or my optimism. either way.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Yeah, it's not a great idea to compare trailers that have been out for several years. Per Wayback Machine in early October 2016, DS trailer 2 was at 16 million/166k likes. Probably things will look similar for the rest. 

Yeah, trailer views has bump near release when casual audience wake up to watch them.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

I also worry about what demos may or may not show up. 

The film will get MCU demo. Other than BP being cultural phenomenon it was, the demo for films remain almost same.

 

[Yandereprime101189]

I do so hope this has a good opening and does well.

[ZattMurdock]

10 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Ignoring Deadline's ridiculous analysis on "what would be a good open for this", I think we have to say less than 1/2 Black Widow's OW 3 day for the 4 day would be very bad.  MCU has a very high base of movie goers, and probably 1/2 of Black Widow's open would be those folks, so this would be drawing no one else but the base...

 

So, if this goes $40.18M for the DOM 4 day (when Black Widow only had a 3 day), Disney heads would roll, just like WB/DC heads are rolling for TSS's open...worse if it goes under that as full theatrical - then words that start with f and b could probably be used:)...

 

That said, I think Disney is looking at an open right now at about that number, which is why the Deadline spin got added/leaked to the market...

 

 

Are heads rolling at WB because of The Suicide Squad? What is the film’s crime? Being good? I fail to see this pre-COVID mentality working with the current landscape. It seems way out of touch from reality.

[TigerPaw]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's gonna be such a weird movie to predict...

 

I think it's going low...but then I tell myself this is MCU, and they literally never go low...

 

But then again, they haven't really revved excitement for Phase 4 yet and everyone seems to be waiting for Spidey and/or Eternals for this MCU fever to go nuts again...part of me wonders if and how much the MCU base sees this as "placeholder" vs "essential"...and it doesn't help that I haven't been grabbed by a single trailer yet.

 

I also worry about what demos may or may not show up.  I thought the Asian demo would overindex for Space Jam 2 b/c of their NBA fan base - they didn't.  I thought they might overindex for Snake Eyes - they didn't.  So, if they continue to mostly stay home in 2021, well, I can't see this going above Black Widow, although that movie had the problem of 25+ women and kids staying home (which were needed to overindex to get the sky high number it didn't get)...and yes, I guess I should mention that if kids and moms also don't overindex (to all the recently released movie figures), this just can't be that high.  4 tickets make more money than 1, and if it's just dad or older bro at the theater, and mom and the kids are home, that's a big hit to box office.  And, without the 3 demos that have been missing most of this summer, I can't see this matching Black Widow b/c it's missing "the hook" to guarantee the uber-fan in the opening weekend seat (saying goodbye to a beloved character is just more "hook" that saying hello to a new one)...

 

I am fascinated by the presale tracking that's gonna start next week b/c it could go any way, but I think it's going low.  I saw the under $60M club today, and I'd have to be in that club as I sit here right now.  Heck, I might be in one that could go lower (like lowest ever Disney MCU opening weekend)...

East Asians (Americans) in general are very cautious and conservative IMO; my two aunts and their familes stay in the states and while fully vaccinated they have not stopped wearing masks and they avoid going out unless absolutely neccessary; especially when they know how delta is sweeping through Asia now.

 

They told me it is the same for many in the same neighbourhood and community; going to the theaters is literally an afterthought at this stage for many of them. They just want their familes to be safe and hope this wave can be over soon. Of course i cannot assume the same for everyone, but this is just a perspective i wanted to share.

 

So it really depends who this movie is targeting. I mean the core / avid MCU fans (which there are alot of them) will probably still head to the theaters.

Edited August 10, 2021 by TigerPaw

[eddyxx]

4 hours ago, Lion Roar said:

This talk about tv spot views is so weird to me. I'm a hardcore MCU fan and I've never once watched any tv spots on YouTube. Most people don't, we just watch the trailers(over and over again). 

The only time I remember a MCU movie having high YouTube views for a spot was Avengers(roll call spot), Infinity War and maybe Endgame.

Edited August 10, 2021 by eddyxx

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Cinemark has listings up. 6pm showings Thursday Sept 2nd. 2hr12 min runtime

[BadOlCatSylvester]

13 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Tickets go on sale next Monday.  

Right after Free Guy's opening weekend. Convenient. Gives them an easy out in case Free Guy underperforms.

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Right after Free Guy's opening weekend. Convenient. Gives them an easy out in case Free Guy underperforms.

 

Yeah, I'm sure that was the dastardly plan from Disney marketing.  

[Valonqar]

14 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

But then again, they haven't really revved excitement for Phase 4 yet and everyone seems to be waiting for Spidey and/or Eternals for this MCU fever to go nuts again...part of me wonders if and how much the MCU base sees this as "placeholder" vs "essential"...and it doesn't help that I haven't been grabbed by a single trailer yet.[/quote]

 

That doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. It isn't like that Marvel would cancel SC if it didn't do well (relative to expectations). Worst that could happen to the character is Hulk status. No more solo movies but important often show-stealing player in team movies and co-starring with another character in that character's "solo". Or, more likely whether it's success or not, having another character as a co-star in the sequel. I mean, BP is their biggest solo and it's getting Namor. Spiderman is their most famous name and it got Iron Man (Homecoming) and now Strange (NWH). So "solo" movies turning into mini teams is more a standard now than exception. Also, Ant Man movies are the smallest by a lot yet they are making #3.  Point is, they have ways to turn placeholder into esssnetial down the line if they need it, and they can afford lower gross if that serves some bigger prupose (think Ant Man's quantum and what it meant for Endgame). In short, they know how to convince audience that it's important to see (not so big or brand new) X to be able to follow what's happening in Big Y (even though that isn't really true such as in case of CM that had no real connection to Endgame yet was adertised as essential to it). 

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I also worry about what demos may or may not show up.  I thought the Asian demo would overindex for Space Jam 2 b/c of their NBA fan base - they didn't.  I thought they might overindex for Snake Eyes - they didn't.

But why? being a fan of NBA isn't the same as watching Lebron's shitty acting in a shitty movie. People love the game itself. They may not care for a movie about a game where outcome is scripted.  It's very similar to gamers and movies adapted from games. Gamers love interaction. They don't get that from movies based on games. They like to play not watch other people play.

 

Snake Eyes...unless that brand was somehow huge in Asia, did you expect  it to over index because the lead is Asian? That's not how GA works. GA won't show up for a shitty looking movie just because they are represented and they won't snub an appealing looking movie just because they are not represented. Why do you think so many all-female movies flop with women as well as men? They don't look appealing. yes, ladies are represented but the movie doesn't look appealing so it's given a snub. Representation =/= automatic audience interst.

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by Valonqar