Weekend Thread 12/28-12/30 AQM 51.5 MPR 28 BB 20.5 ITSV 18.3

[NamakFiskKa]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Because Netflix is the Thanos of cinematic industry, it wipe out half of the theater attendance, threatening the fun of box office, and the existence of BOT  

Just like Thanos it will crumble under its own weight

[DisneyFanatic]

Interesting Box Office for MPR as it’s performing like a standard Christmas musical and not a sequel to a much loved movie. 

 

I think some people (inc me) expected more from its first few days but think about the demo for this movie. It’ll skew older and there’s no “must see as soon possible” about the movie as we all know how the story will play out.  

 

It’s probably so long since the original that it’s playing like a stand alone movie and not a sequel. I expect it to play well, a bit like normal Oscar nominated material/musicals so I’m still expecting 250m+ - just not quite as quickly as anticipated. 

[Fielding]

23 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Just like Thanos it will crumble under its own weight

Let's hope so (and I'm someone who loathes the current state of the film industry).

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

If I've got this right, the projected weekend would mean that Bumblebee would have a x3 OW multiplier by the end of its second weekend.

 

Does anyone know if this has happened many time before without any screen expansion?

[MCKillswitch123]

If these numbers hold, Aquaman will surely make O/U 350M to become the 2nd biggest DCEU film DOM, which is awesome and clearly proves that with the right talent at the helm, DC can be a force of nature. For them to survive the Justice League debacle with this big of a rebound thanks to a solo movie starring a character who was once seen as the joke of the main DC heroes line-up, and was also the star of one of the most notoriously piss poor video games ever in Aquaman: Battle For Atlantis, is quite ridiculous. And it also has a very good chance at the billion mark WW. Think about it: Batman V Superman and Justice League couldn't hit a billion, yet Aquaman might do it.... insane. Then again, who thought Black Panther would hit 1.3+ earlier this year, who thought Incredibles 2 would make more than Iron Man 3 WW, who thought Venom would hit 850+, how many accurately predicted Infinity War as a 2 billion grosser...... 2018 was superhero madness, ladies and gentlemen. The fact that Ant-Man And The Wasp is the sole 2018 live-action superhero film that could be seen as a financial disappointment, despite still being a huge, profitable success and increasing about 100M+ from the 1st movie, a rare feat for any kind of sequel, despite the character's increase in awareness stemming only from the goodwill of his own movie + his cameo in Civil War; AND the sequel itself, despite good reviews and wom, being extremely self-cornered, really small scale (figuratively, not just literally) and quite inside baseball for the many who did not see Ant-Man 1... that is proof of how massive cbm's are nowadays.

 

Also, great increase for MPR. I'm not gonna say Jumanji legs, but 200+ is a likelihood at this point, especially since it probably skews old and it won't have any new family competition for a while now. If Emily Blunt gets awards attention, late legs might be strong as well.

 

Bumblebee, hopefully, makes its mark DOM and outgrosses The Last Knight by a comfortable margin; and also, stunning hold (increase) for Spider-Verse.

 

One last thing: with that increase, The Mule might actually have a 100M DOM shot. It could be really, really, REALLY close, but I can see it happening.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, maxalcamo said:

I don't think the comparison is to say both are the same thing or they have the same relevance as brand but both are christmas musicals relesead year by year so the comparison is  really inevitable. MPR did a +100% than The Greatest Showman in the first week. It's doing a +100% and even more in the second week so again it's pretty normal to me to compare both titles to analyse where MRP could go. 

I just don’t know why they keep saying “it’s this percentage ahead”. Greatest Showman is an original and opened with just $8m. MPR’s is nowhere near as impressive and won’t have anywhere close to the same multiplier or audience love. 

 

TGS was and still is a phenomenon. 

[TMP]

Jason Momoa’s gonna have a lot of offers on his desk in a few days

[Napoleon]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Nancy Tartaglione says DC’s fish man will hit $750M WW by Sunday, eclipsing the entire global life of Justice League ($657.9M). Yes, it’s true: Warners has resuscitated DC.

You gotta love this clickbait era we're living in. Deadline's idea of a dead franchise is DC having 4 consecutive huge hits and then one disappointing performer that still earned $650 million worldwide. I guess the MCU is currently dead after Ant-man 2 but will get shockingly resuscitated next year by Avengers Endgame.

[DeeCee]

40 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

If I've got this right, the projected weekend would mean that Bumblebee would have a x3 OW multiplier by the end of its second weekend.

 

Does anyone know if this has happened many time before without any screen expansion?

It happens quite often for movies that open the weekend before Christmas and that Christmas falls on a weekday. 

 

It it happened for Jumanji, TGS and PP3 last year. 

[MikeQ]

34 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

If I've got this right, the projected weekend would mean that Bumblebee would have a x3 OW multiplier by the end of its second weekend.

 

Does anyone know if this has happened many time before without any screen expansion?

Yes, depending on the calendar configuration, it happens pretty frequently during the December holidays. Mary Poppins Returns will also hit 3x multiplier by the end of its second weekend, even when counting its 5-day opening gross as a 3-day opening. 

 

Last year, Jumanji and The Greatest Showman (again, even when counting the 5-day opening gross as its 3-day opening for both), as well as Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, all hit a 3x multiplier by the end of their second weekend.

 

The year before that, Sing and Why Him? hit 3x by the end of their second weekend. Etc. Some years this doesn’t happen as much because of the calendar configuration, but there are still other films that come very close to hitting 3x by the end of the second weekend, and still other films that technically hit 3x as well using 3-day opening, but opened on a Wednesday (which is a frequent occurrence some years, again, depending on calendar configuration).

 

Peace,

Mike

 

[Lordmandeep]

Bird box numbers are great and show netflix films are getting way more mainstream. Will it threaten theaters..not in the short term.

[XO21]

2 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

You gotta love this clickbait era we're living in. Deadline's idea of a dead franchise is DC having 4 consecutive huge hits and then one disappointing performer that still earned $650 million worldwide. I guess the MCU is currently dead after Ant-man 2 but will get shockingly resuscitated next year by Avengers Endgame.

TBH if a particular narration prevails they'll run with it...not only in movies biz btw.

 

[Jonwo]

The Mule is trotting along nicely, while Warner Bros is bathing in the success of Aquaman, they’ll be pleased with how The Mule has done so far. 

[reddevil19]

5 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 I guess the MCU is currently dead after Ant-man 2 but will get shockingly resuscitated next year by Avengers Endgame.

That's the plan...

 

But in all seriousness, I dread the amount of clickbait for Shazam. If that makes less than JL (even though in all probability it will have cost a third of that), the DCEU will be dead again (cue WW84 smashing the box office a year later and new titles about her saving the DC universe - simply because Joker will only be seen as "proper" DC if it fails, whereas a success would be qualified as "not really part of the DCEU, so that's still dead")

 

I just find it funny at this point, but it does get tiresome when every analysis comes with asterisks.

[WrathOfHan]

Insane increase for Ralph

[IronJimbo]

This is where Alita would have gone up 200%

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

This is where Alita would have gone up 200%

What, from 2 to 6 million? 

[DMan7]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

What, from 2 to 6 million? 

I think he meant -200%, so from 2 to 0 million.

Edited December 29, 2018 by DMan7

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

You gotta love this clickbait era we're living in. Deadline's idea of a dead franchise is DC having 4 consecutive huge hits and then one disappointing performer that still earned $650 million worldwide. I guess the MCU is currently dead after Ant-man 2 but will get shockingly resuscitated next year by Avengers Endgame.

MoS and BvS made a profit of 46.3 mil and 100 mil respectively. Not really huge hits if you ask me. Also, Justice League literally flopped. It is really funny that you are making it seem like the movie just made less money than expected. No, it actually lost a lot of money in terms of the revenue earned from the movie itself and the substantial amount of brand damage (which affects merch). The franchise WAS momentarily dead.

 

Ant Man and the Wasp probably made around the same profit as BvS so it as much of a success as BvS (I would consider both disappointing). I love your blatant fanboyism for the DCEU in every thread. Yes, DCEU is the best franchise ever. All the people who say otherwise are just C L I C K B A I T.

 

Napolean, honest question. Why do you think everyone is here to destroy the DCEU? All these "clickbait" news sites were happy when Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman, and now Aquaman became huge hits. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by lorddemaxus

[jedijake]

So....MPR will be over $100 million by the end of the weekend. So $200 million is looking much more promising if it has decent legs. Doesn't even need tremendous legs. Interesting.

 

Watched a little of Bird Box. It would have done "okay" at the box office but as many said, it was a lot like the Happening which never ended up happening.

 

Unless Netflix can produce visually stimulating stuff, it won't overcome theatrical events.