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Eric Duncan

PAPA NOL∀N'S TENƎꓕ | August 26 internationally. September 2 "in select US cities" | 75% on RT after 228 reviews

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It’s all about the slow build. 
 

Speaking for what I perceive UK audiences to be like. If you sample many of the allocated seats booked so far, you’ll notice there’s far more people going on their own than usual. 
 

The fact is, these tickets going on sale is the conversation starter. This is where the other halves need their arm twisting to dare go. Fact is that the majority of people don’t go on their own to the cinema.  If Tenet is awesome then that air of persuasion is only going to heighten as we get closer to release. Then word of mouth, reports from friends who felt comfortable etc - the confidence will come back. 
 

Middling sales on day one means nothing right now. It’s a start and the hype for the movie is only going to intensify. 
 

people a bit apprehensive will ask those that are going how the cinemas are set up etc. The important conversations are happening as we speak. The even more important conversations will happen if audiences have a great experience and let everybody know about it. 

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8 hours ago, SnokesLegs said:

If any critics are lenient to it purely because they want people to go back to cinemas then they should find a new job. Films should be judged based on what they are, not on the external factors surrounding their release.

Ideally, yes. In practice, half of the reviews will be essays about the danger of moviegoing during a pandemic - and what the critic did during the lockdown.

10 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

yeha checking at my local they have showings every half hour and clicking through every screening it seems like so far it has sold three tickets total across all of them. which i'm not opposed to since right now i have no issue seeing this with no audience but the numbers might suck for them!

Will Tenet get 10% of the box office per screen of Unhinged? 😡

 

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11 hours ago, Litio said:

I did a projection with the numbers that were given. There are films playing in UK cinemas. I used these numbers as a basis:

 

https://www.britinfo.net/cinema/ukbox.htm

 

Presales’ comparisons in the USA (not UK) are usually made between pre-sales, not between sales of films playing and pre-sales. This comparison took just 1 or 2 days before release, unless your movie is something like Endgame. 
Seriously, how much are you expecting Tenet will do on OW?

Vue is the third biggest chain and, again, THERE IS NOTHING ELSE PLAYING.

If the top movie made 150k over the weekend in ALL cinemas, then all tickets sold on a Wed, at one chain - the third most-popular at that, with very few showtimes beyond the next five days, and that just for Unhinged, and some of the biggest cinemas in their chain STILL CLOSED and not taking bookings - were most likely worth about 5 grand, 10 at a push. so we're talking 3-6k for Tenet. 

 

Look, don't get me wrong, it's not necessarily terrible. It's still early, I'm sure it will pick up. But the point is that the article is intentionally using a % to drum up positive buzz and you shouldn't put too much stock into it. Playing on 90% of screens and getting 80% of the audience doesn't mean jack shit if the total audience is insignificant. If we don't slide back into further restrictions, it will pick up, I'm sure. But don't start celebrating over the 60% of all tickets of a chain that has a 17% share, of a market where the number of people going out to the cinema country-wide is in its thousands.

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I think the expectation of Tenet right now is more to give theaters a new blockbuster to play rather than make money for the studio. a 250M-400M gross for Tenet would be a box office bomb (for the studio) but it would've restored consumer confidence in going back to theaters. so if Tenet does well, WB might consider keeping WW84 (their real money maker) this year. kind of like how Disney might consider sending black widow to Disney+ if Mulan does well with that new model theyre trying. 

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Think I'm gonna have to watch this next month. Country still hasn't announced any reopening plans at all even though cases have gotten much lower here. Schools are gonna open next month so I guess they'll plan cinema openings around the same time. Guess I'm gonna have to avoid spoilers for this for like about a month.

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6 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Vue is the third biggest chain and, again, THERE IS NOTHING ELSE PLAYING.

If the top movie made 150k over the weekend in ALL cinemas, then all tickets sold on a Wed, at one chain - the third most-popular at that, with very few showtimes beyond the next five days, and that just for Unhinged, and some of the biggest cinemas in their chain STILL CLOSED and not taking bookings - were most likely worth about 5 grand, 10 at a push. so we're talking 3-6k for Tenet. 

 

Look, don't get me wrong, it's not necessarily terrible. It's still early, I'm sure it will pick up. But the point is that the article is intentionally using a % to drum up positive buzz and you shouldn't put too much stock into it. Playing on 90% of screens and getting 80% of the audience doesn't mean jack shit if the total audience is insignificant. If we don't slide back into further restrictions, it will pick up, I'm sure. But don't start celebrating over the 60% of all tickets of a chain that has a 17% share, of a market where the number of people going out to the cinema country-wide is in its thousands.

Reposting: 

Combined, the films made $ 665k last weekend in the UK, an average of ~ $ 222k per day. If that average drops 55% on weekdays (estimated drop. In the week between July 31st and August 6th, The film at # 1 fell about 60% in the average per day between the weekend and the weekdays, the film at # 2 dropped by less than 5%, the movie at # 3 increased by more than 10%), that would average ~ $ 100k daily on weekdays, meaning Tenet could have made $ 150k with pre sales on the first day. Obviously, that would be if Tenet sold 60% of the day's sales in all cinemas. If Tenet sold an average of $ 150k a day in pre-orders, that would be close to $ 2m with pre-sales until the launch day. If the combined total of the films on Wednesday is ~ $ 88k, a 60% drop from the daily average for the weekend, it would mean that Tenet made ~ $ 132k in pre-sales on the first day. If it keeps this average by day in pre-sales, by the day of release, it will have accumulated ~ $ 1.7m in pre-sales.
Again, that would be if Tenet sold 60% of the day's sales in ALL theaters, not just the Vue theaters, but considering there are lot of theaters to reopen, it doesn't seem like an exaggerated estimate.

 

Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/by-year/2020/?area=GB

 

“You’re going to see a slow start and then it’s going to pick up very, very quickly in the week before release [as more venues open],”

https://variety.com/2020/film/global/tenet-fever-christopher-nolan-vue-cinemas-ticket-sales-1234732897/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

+: If Vue dominates 17% of UK cinemas, that would mean ~ $ 25k in presales on first day ONLY in Vue cinemas (in my projection). This is great

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Auckland lockdown extended 12 days... the day before Tenet is released. I guess Jacinda is a Nolan fan 😂 but in all seriousness they are looking at it again on the 21st and may extend it if necessary. 

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4 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Auckland lockdown extended 12 days... the day before Tenet is released. I guess Jacinda is a Nolan fan 😂 but in all seriousness they are looking at it again on the 21st and may extend it if necessary. 

When I realised when it's due to end I was like, so we have a chance. :Gaga:

 

No previews but Thursday viewings are technically possible. Fingers crossed, I wanna see this shit goddamn (while also being safe of course).

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While it would seem like a dick, Disney-like move, it makes sense.

They're essentially burning a 200 million movie - they're obviously going to try and label it as saving cinemas, but they're not gonna be selfless. They need to try and limit the damages somehow. And considering the likelihood of nothing else major playing for the rest of the year, then if cinema chains refuse, they may as well pack it in.

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