THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[Mekanos]

I do think Thursday previews could be relatively muted, there is going to be less of a hardcore nerd 20/30 rush to see this like there was for Incredibles 2. My local IMAX in Orange County was only about 70% full an hour before its current showing, whereas by then it was already full for Homecoming (the only other Thursday previews I went to were Infinity War and Endgame... which obviously had full houses). So it could play like Jurassic World and build up over time.

 

What was Jurassic World 1's Thursday? I can't find it. 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

Just now, Mekanos said:

I do think Thursday previews could be relatively muted, there is going to be less of a hardcore nerd 20/30 rush to see this like there was for Incredibles 2. My local IMAX in Orange County was only about 70% full an hour before its current showing, whereas by then it was already full for Homecoming (the only other Thursday previews I went to were Infinity War and Endgame... which obviously had full houses). So it could play like Jurassic World and build up over time.

 

What was Jurassic World 1's Thursday? I can't find it. 

18.5 million

[dxmatrixdt]

9 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

Guys i've already watched the movie in imax 3D in my country (Portugal) and all i can say to you all is that this is TIMON AND PUMBA'S MOVIE! ❤️

 

i thought they creatively hindered the movie when i did a stoned by stoned 20+ years later rewatch 2 months ago.  Not sure if the Jon Favreau felt the same way....  Everyone loves a laugh, everyone laughed at War of the Apes and Terminator: Genisys

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

18.5 million

Thanks. So yeah, very possible it goes sub-20 and still breaks out. 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Thanks. So yeah, very possible it goes sub-20 and still breaks out. 

I think Jurassic World can be pretty good guidepost.... and opening weekend isn't really a referendum on a film's quality anyway. OW is more about whether the marketing worked. "The Lion King... but real!" basically sells itself. Even if critical response was around the 20% mark it still would have cleared $200 mil OW, especially with that theater count. 

The film's quality only really comes into play as a box-office factor in the second weekend when word of mouth starts spreading...

Edited July 19, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[Mekanos]

Yeah, the theater count is a clear indication Disney wants this to break 200.

[HeadShot]

40 minutes ago, ban1o said:

 

See with Aladdin I actually though it improved on some aspects of the animated film (filled in some plot holes and improved Jasmine's character drastically). That's why I thought the reviews were unfair for Aladdin.

 

 

Jamine's character was ruined in the live action adaptation. They took away all her spark and sassiness and instead replaced it with having her walk around the palace with teary eyes.  

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

"Droves" isn't 132 people.... It's not even 13,200 people. Even if I grant that 132,000 people gave enough of a damn about any movie to go and rate it at rotten tomatoes or imdb... that's not "droves." Maybe it's a drove... I guess... if I knew exactly what a "drove" even measured out to, LOL. But that's still a tiny percentage of the "regular" audience. 

 

I personally don't know a single person in real life who has ever watched a movie and then cared enough to go to rotten tomatoes and rate it and leave a review.... I'm the only person I know in real life who cares enough about the box office to lurk a forum for years and then post at it, too....

We're not a good representation of the regular audience.... Twitter isn't a good representation of anything but self-hate, really. A good representation is what the box office is for... and even then, it's only good for showing popularity, not quality.... And this movie is going to be exceedingly popular. 
 

The audience review score is used to help gage how popular a film is going to be with general audiences, even if it is just a subset of that audience. 

Quality is subjective to each and every person. But if the general audience seems to love a film, it will generally get good word of mouth which generally leads to better legs than it otherwise would have had.  That's exactly why things like RT, IMDB and twitter matter for GA word of mouth and it's exactly the kind of data that the majority of us have been tracking/analyzing for years. It is indeed valid data and most of us here are able to use such data to accurately extrapolate to some degree the future success of a film. As the data points grow, so does our ability to accurately predict. It's literally what these forums are for!

Aladdin's run is a perfect parallel example about how bad early buzz/critic reviews were overcome by a wave of general audience positive word of mouth. It's also exactly why it's had the extraordinary legs that it's had both domestically and abroad. Audience WOM and reactions i.e. audience reviews. It doesn't matter how those reactions are spread (RT, twitter, facebook, water cooler at work, friends over dinner, etc). If they are overwhelmingly positive, they will eventually start to win over people who might have been hesitant after reading poor critic reviews, etc. This is box office 101.

And nobody is saying the audience reviews are more valid than the critic reviews in terms of quality. Again, that's subjective. 

But it's a whole other story in terms of box office, internal multipliers, etc. Hundreds of thousands of people with overwhelmingly positive sentiments towards a film can definitely persuade the GA better than a couple hundred critics. 

Again, Aladdin is the perfect example of why all of this matters. 

As to your point that you don't know people who review films. Maybe you just don't have many friends?
 

[filmscholar]

"One Life, One Love, So there can only be One King" - Nas

 

[ban1o]

3 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

Jamine's character was ruined in the live action adaptation. They took away all her spark and sassiness and instead replaced it with having her walk around the palace with teary eyes.  

i disagree. She had much more agency in the live action adaption. Her character was improved. 

[TwoMisfits]

Totally off the Lion King topic...but I finally gave in...

 

After almost 2 months of begging, and going through a tooth removal like a champ, I let my youngest pick my TMobile Atom deal movie tickets for cheap Tuesday...and he picked Aladdin.  Not Toys 4, not Lion King...heck, not even Endgame like he originally wanted until he found out it was 3 hours:)...and funniest thing, the dang cheap showing is almost sold out on Tuesday at my Cinemark, so I'm definitely not the only one getting my practically free seats in advance.

 

My teen girls both refused to go, so it's a boys/parents outing...but 4 tickets for $10.50...it finally was a price I couldn't refuse to take my youngest.  I'm pretty sure I've seen every scene from this movie b/c he watches every song Youtube video...but it got me and him through that tooth removal appointment, so I almost don't care how bad or good the movie really is...b/c it was the bribe that got me through this week:).  

 

PS - Now, we already did Spidey full price, so he couldn't pick that b/c we don't watch movies in theaters twice as a family:)...although maybe after Tuesday, I might relax that rule if TMobile gives me cheap tickets again:)...

[terrestrial]

Does someone here know if there will be a special thread for ComicCon too or will this thread be the place for news?

 

[Deja23]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

Does someone here know if there will be a special thread for ComicCon too or will this thread be the place for news?

 

 

[75Live]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Does someone here know if there will be a special thread for ComicCon too or will this thread be the place for news?

 

 

 

doh!!  @Deja23 beat me to it  😛 

Edited July 19, 2019 by 75Live

[Cap]

Thanks @Deja23 and @75Live.  And hey mods ( @DeeCee ) do you think we could get a pin for Friday and Saturday?

[cannastop]

Hmm 91% verified audience score. 616 votes.

[nguyenkhoi282]

•1st 
Thu (22)
Fri (62) => 84
Sat (69) [+11%] => 153
Sun (58) [-16%] => 211 

[Eric Duncan]

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-weekend-box-office-july-records-1202648944/

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: We’re hearing from non-Disney sources that Jon Favreau’s The Lion King reboot is doing some smashing business tonight with an estimated $22M-$25Moff showtimes that largely started at 6PM (there were 5pm select fan screenings). Again with these estimates, sometimes they can fall outside the range we’re hearing from sources, but overall, it’s a great start.

 

While that’s not a July Thursday night preview record —Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2‘s midnight shows of $43.5M looks to still hold this record– Lion King‘s Thursday night cash stash is on the low-end above Captain Marvel‘s $20.2M (which repped 33% of its opening day Friday for a $153.4M opening) and on the high-end just under Black Panther‘s $25.2M (33% of Friday, for a $202M 3-day opening).

 

Bringing tonight within comparisons of Disney live-action adaptations of its classic toons, Lion King is already burying Beauty and the Beast‘s $16.3M Thursday night preview which yielded 26% of its opening day for a $174.7M opening. Heading into the weekend tracking estimates were between $180M-$192M. If Lion King clicks past Deathly Hallows 2‘s $169.1M, then it’s the best domestic opening ever for July. One rival studio marketing executive marveled today, “This film has had a 98 total awareness on tracking for a long time — that’s unheard of!” First choice for The Lion King is leaning heavier toward females than males.

 

[VanillaSkies]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Hmm 91% verified audience score. 616 votes.

91% with 796 verified votes. 

82% all audience votes with 1594 votes. All Audience has been steadily increasing. 

 

I expect both verified/all audience to finish the weekend in the high 80's/low 90s ball-park similar to Aladdin. 

[ThomasNicole]

I’m not going to hype this and keep expecting $ 20-21M

 

BUT HOLY SHIT IF IT COMES BETWEEN $ 24-25M