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Eric Riley

SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

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4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Lets see how shang will hold first though if it can pass bw by a decent margin then

...

 

Nothing so far points at a crash next week. I was right about Candyman not crashing and I think I'll be right about SC. 

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Disney can put SC on PA after 45 days and get similar money to BW considering people who didn't go to theater will pay it but also lots of fans who watch it on theaters will pay to watch many times again at home.

 

If China didn't approve the movie i think SC will gross around 400-420M, so bigger than BW despite opening lower because PA won't destroy it's legs. But they still can put it on PA after 45 days and get 75-80% of what BW did and then put on VOD and BD after 90 days and gross even more.

 

To me this is the better way to make all the money is possible between theaters, streaming and digital and could make SC totals above BW despite costing less on budget and marketing, and being a new characters.

 

Eternals could go the same way. With more hype and a better environment this one can make 600M on box office and additional 100-125M on streaming / digital keeping the november date and using PA and PVOD in different dates weeks after theatrical release.

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18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

He's writing what I posted yesterday (and no one liked).

 

Cheap-o Chapek is not gonna care about "difference in characters".  He's not gonna care about "future revenue streams."  He's gonna care about "how much money did Widow get with the day and date vs Shang Chi's full theatrical".  The relatively non-overperformance overseas is gonna play into that, b/c overseas is most effected by PA - if INT box office receipts don't move up to 70% of WW revenue, Cheap-o Chapek is gonna go to Kevin and say "I need $XM in profit from Eternals by Dec 31 - how do I get it the fastest and most guaranteed?" 

 

Money, especially in the NOW, is the only language Chapek speaks, and if you don't believe that, check out the new Genie +, Lightning Passes, and Christmas Party prices for Disney this year...it's ALL about the short term money at the expense of fans...

 

Chapek can also find himself on a short train out of the building if he fucks around too much and pisses off too many people.  He's a new guy at CEO, and as much power as that title can give people, the board runs things.  Bob Iger is still a voice in that company, and if it looks like Chapek is going to alienate all of his talent, Chapek will be the one finding a new job.  

 

What matters here is public perception as much as "money".  This all very clearly set up as Chapek wanted to release Black Widow on PA and it pissed off all his talent, especially Feige and Scarlett.  The compromise was that for Shang-Chi they would see how that did and was the "experiment".  

 

Shang-Chi won and Chapek lost.  The actors, directors, producers and agents all want theatrical exclusive.  They are going to win and Chapek has lost, even if he isn't smart enough to realize it yet.  

 

 

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8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Chapek can also find himself on a short train out of the building if he fucks around too much and pisses off too many people.  He's a new guy at CEO, and as much power as that title can give people, the board runs things.  Bob Iger is still a voice in that company, and if it looks like Chapek is going to alienate all of his talent, Chapek will be the one finding a new job.  

 

What matters here is public perception as much as "money".  This all very clearly set up as Chapek wanted to release Black Widow on PA and it pissed off all his talent, especially Feige and Scarlett.  The compromise was that for Shang-Chi they would see how that did and was the "experiment".  

 

Shang-Chi won and Chapek lost.  The actors, directors, producers and agents all want theatrical exclusive.  They are going to win and Chapek has lost, even if he isn't smart enough to realize it yet.  

 

 

 

You can't say that yet...as far as Chapek is concerned, Shang Chi opened slightly lower (he won't care about the whys, b/c he'll make all the points I made)...now you have to see how it legs out.  If it's even steven theatrically, PA "wins" for him b/c it has the extra $100M...

 

Disney fans who saw Halloween party pricing get huge increases and still sells out (and then "unselling out" by having more tickets get sold to what was supposed to be "limited" parties) then saw Christmas parties go way, way higher know that the $ is almighty for him right now.  He really doesn't care what bridges he's burning right now...

 

EDIT TO ADD: And let me not forget his new Annual Pass programs at his parks unveiled this week - you've never seen more pissed off Disney uber-fans at the prices and restrictions he wants...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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8 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

based on its trailers, it's clear that Eternals is not award player at all.

it was... over exaggerated by marvel fanboys.

 

It's a 200M movie, if you want movies like that to make money you cut a trailer that show what people want, exciting set pieces, not awards worthy scenes.

 

Dune is clearly coming to try awards, still, see the final trailer to it and how it doesn't present like an awards player.

 

I'm not promising anything here (but yes Feige is probably going to try, all the 3 dates this movie have was in the middle of award season for a reason), but a trailer is never a good metric to judge that when it comes to a blockbuster.

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24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am more interested in Europe box office of NTTD than US because it will be first BIG film to release in there, not nearly as big in US. 

 

I am not the target audience of film, not feeling anything personally, makes it difficult to judge a film.


Yep. Although I’m the target audience as I absolutely love this franchise, I can tell you the anticipation is palpable here in the U.K.  It is everywhere. 
Although it would be unrealistic to expect it to do Skyfall/Spectre numbers over here in the current climate - it’s going to be big. I’ve no doubt. 

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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You can't say that yet...as far as Chapek is concerned, Shang Chi opened slightly lower (he won't care about the whys, b/c he'll make all the points I made)...now you have to see how it legs out.  If it's even steven theatrically, PA "wins" for him b/c it has the extra $100M...

 

Disney fans who saw Halloween party pricing get huge increases and still sells out (and then "unselling out" by having more tickets get sold to what was supposed to be "limited" parties) then saw Christmas parties go way, way higher know that the $ is almighty for him right now.  He really doesn't care what bridges he's burning right now...


I see what you’re saying, but Shang Chi was nowhere near the same guarantee of success BW was.  
 

Unless Chapek has Rob Lowe and Robert Wagner as his box office advisers then I’m sure he’ll see SC’s performance as the green light for 45 day window going forward. 
 

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I agree with EC here. Chapek can think what he wants and want what he wants in private, but he's not God over at Disney, he answers to a higher power. This is a big public success and it's gonna get covered as such. If he tries to send Eternals to day and date I think he'll spark a fight that he won't win. 

Edited by Lokis Legion
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2 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

ERC is a noob… a true pro would note this is actually the 2nd worst MCU opening ever, not the 5th :Venom:

Meming around a little here but I do think people don't appreciate how big the MCU OWs were, even for the smaller movies. 55M in 2008 was actually pretty big.

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34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Disney can put SC on PA after 45 days and get similar money to BW considering people who didn't go to theater will pay it but also lots of fans who watch it on theaters will pay to watch many times again at home.

 

If China didn't approve the movie i think SC will gross around 400-420M, so bigger than BW despite opening lower because PA won't destroy it's legs. But they still can put it on PA after 45 days and get 75-80% of what BW did and then put on VOD and BD after 90 days and gross even more.

 

To me this is the better way to make all the money is possible between theaters, streaming and digital and could make SC totals above BW despite costing less on budget and marketing, and being a new characters.

 

Eternals could go the same way. With more hype and a better environment this one can make 600M on box office and additional 100-125M on streaming / digital keeping the november date and using PA and PVOD in different dates weeks after theatrical release.

 

Surprised this model hasn't been talked about to be honest with you. 

 

45 day theatrical exclusive

PA after that (14 days or whatever)

VOD after that (another 10 days or whatever)

Blu Ray and DVD (no one buys them anymore but sure)

Free on Disney+ ~ 90-120 days after theatrical debut.

 

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8 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

 

Surprised this model hasn't been talked about to be honest with you. 

 

45 day theatrical exclusive

PA after that (14 days or whatever)

VOD after that (another 10 days or whatever)

Blu Ray and DVD (no one buys them anymore but sure)

Free on Disney+ ~ 90-120 days after theatrical debut.

 

They could even release it on digital and PA the same day. The latter with a cheaper buy in as an advantage to having a D+ sub. 
 

I really don’t see it as rocket science for them. 
They will make way more money by having multiple revenue streams that begin with a lucrative window that can’t be pirated and passed around.  Everything that comes with it, from repeat viewings to event status and word of mouth - it’s all gravy. 
 

when all is said and done, the only thing that would have changed is a smaller window and now an additional way to sell directly to their customers through PA.  
 

Everybody wins. 

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Great opening for Shang-Chi.
 

Just back from the film and it was mostly fun, Awkwafina stole the show, she’s hilarious. The fight choreography was incredible and the lead is likeable. The middle act slowed for me and the third act lost its way a bit. Fun ending. 
 

3/5 

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Was an awesome movie. Some nice emotional moments, great villain, great action. Loved the third act craziness as well, wish more blockbusters would go that route. I did think that it slowed a bit in the second act but really picked up again which was nice. Easily the best Phase 4 release so far and the first one that lives up to the quality of most of Phase 3. 

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IMO, Chapek could be out the door in a couple years, especially if his new theme park annual pass structure doesn’t take off.

 

I do have concern for Eternals. It’s not as easy of a “sell” as Shang-Chi (family centric martial arts). What’s the “hook” for Eternals outside of Chloe Zhao (who casual audiences won’t know or care about) and Angelina Jolie (who has been very downplayed so far). Having a large and diverse ensemble case is nice, but not a strong draw IMO.

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1 minute ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

IMO, Chapek could be out the door in a couple years, especially if his new theme park annual pass structure doesn’t take off.

 

I do have concern for Eternals. It’s not as easy of a “sell” as Shang-Chi (family centric martial arts). What’s the “hook” for Eternals outside of Chloe Zhao (who casual audiences won’t know or care about) and Angelina Jolie (who has been very downplayed so far). Having a large and diverse ensemble case is nice, but not a strong draw IMO.

The biggest hook in all of film...

 

"from Marvel Studios"

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8 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

IMO, Chapek could be out the door in a couple years, especially if his new theme park annual pass structure doesn’t take off.

 

I do have concern for Eternals. It’s not as easy of a “sell” as Shang-Chi (family centric martial arts). What’s the “hook” for Eternals outside of Chloe Zhao (who casual audiences won’t know or care about) and Angelina Jolie (who has been very downplayed so far). Having a large and diverse ensemble case is nice, but not a strong draw IMO.

Trailers have been doing better than Shang-Chi so I suppose the hook of large-scale sci-fi action is working. 

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