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Eric the Fall Guy

NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

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My current Dune prediction based on presales:

 

5.5M Previews

16.5M Friday (23M Full Friday)

14.8M Saturday (-10%/-34%)

9.6M Sunday (-35%)

47.4M Weekend

 

If it's possible to get a 70%+ PLF share, Dune will do it based on its sales so far. The PLF sellouts on Thursday night will make it less frontloaded than other Max titles. Nobody wants to see this on a standard screen.

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True fact I learned recently: Until Shrek 2 and Finding Nemo hit the market, Top Gun was the highest selling home video in American movies. Now that I think about it, almost every kid I grew up with, no matter race or income, seemed to have a copy lying around in their house, so it makes sense. There is def big time nostalgia there.

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The next Bond villain should be a space traveling oligarch media mogul hybrid type like Jeff Bezos and Rupert Murdoch merged in one, similar to Jonathan Pryce's villain in Tomorrow Never Dies.  It would be very appropriate and timely.

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13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

As much as I've declared adult moviegoing dead, I think Top Gun bout to blow up huge. It's been a long time since I've had as many randos who never see movies tell me they're so excited to go to a movie. It's like The Force Awakens for white dudes in their late 30s/early 40s. It will have most of the Bond crowd, plus the 80s nostalgia crowd and some of the American Sniper crowd. If I had any faith in Paramount not to fuck up marketing and jettison it to Paramount+, I'd probably be predicting 100m OW.


 

Definitely smart to hightail it out of that November release date. And people have them grief for it 

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26 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Just read on Reddit how there are no “Bond marathons” on TV anymore. While it probably wouldn’t matter these days, it probably helped the Brosnan films back in the day 

Yeah, there was always a 007 marathon on TBS or Spike or whatever, especially during Thanksgiving or Christmas. People (especially kids) just don't watch TV like that anymore, at least not in the same numbers. But if the MGM/Amazon merger goes through, the Bond movies could have a home there. People do watch Amazon streaming, at least sometimes. 

 

It does look like Bond is not appealing to younger audiences, and I'm not sure how casting anyone who could have made a list of "the next James Bond" candidates 8-10 years ago makes sense as Craig's replacement. Connery turned 32 the year Dr. No came out! If you keep living, eventually the guy playing James Bond will be younger than you. The Broccolis can do whatever they want, but I really doubt Idris or Tom Hardy or even Cavill are in the cards as our next lead. It makes sense to cast someone younger and unencumbered, and don't take a thousand years between movies with him. 

 

Who knows how Bond bros might react, but women of many ages seem to like Rege-Jean Page well enough...

 

 

 

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Argh, my phone ate my response, so tl;dr:

 

@excel1 

 

Unless Barbara has done a complete 180, Tom Hiddleston is never going to get the role. But it’s hilarious to watch him thirst after it

 

@Cmasterclay

 

Oh I would not get it twisted. Venom success has nothing to do with Tom Hardy, and everything to do with people wanting to fuck a tentacle monster. 😂😂😂

 

@Blankments

 

Dev is actually the one “OMGG 👀👀👀👀” choice being tossed around. I don’t think Elba as the villain Would be a good luck though. He can play the villain, but he can’t play James Bond? You don’t really want to open up that discourse.  
 

@grey ghost

 

That’s not exactly what Daniel Craig said. He basically said why would a woman want to play this role, he’s awful. They should write a better character for her. He didn’t say that a woman shouldn’t play James Bond or there shouldn’t be a female James Bond.

 

@BoxOfficeFangrl

 

OOOOH. I vote Rege-Jean. Make Dev the new Moneypenny 😉

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1 hour ago, excel1 said:

NO TIME TO DIE cost "$250-300 million"

The solution, clearly, is to keep the budgets for the next two or three Bond films within the $170-$185 million range (same as Mission Impossible: Fallout) so that the break-even point is lower.

 

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

target a more famous name for the baddie

I wouldn't be too opposed to this. 

 

Your suggestion of "famous but not a draw" could also work for maybe one or two of the women too, I think.

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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

The Bond marathons are on Pluto TV now.

I went through all the Bonds on Pluto TV the past month to prepare for this new one (and the Craig Bonds of course). It was certainly an interesting experience, even if I only really liked...five of them.

 

9 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Yeah, there was always a 007 marathon on TBS or Spike or whatever, especially during Thanksgiving or Christmas. People (especially kids) just don't watch TV like that anymore, at least not in the same numbers. But if the MGM/Amazon merger goes through, the Bond movies could have a home there. People do watch Amazon streaming, at least sometimes. 

 

It does look like Bond is not appealing to younger audiences, and I'm not sure how casting anyone who could have made a list of "the next James Bond" candidates 8-10 years ago makes sense as Craig's replacement. Connery turned 32 the year Dr. No came out! If you keep living, eventually the guy playing James Bond will be younger than you. The Broccolis can do whatever they want, but I really doubt Idris or Tom Hardy or even Cavill are in the cards as our next lead. It makes sense to cast someone younger and unencumbered, and don't take a thousand years between movies with him. 

 

Who knows how Bond bros might react, but women of many ages seem to like Rege-Jean Page well enough...

 

 

 

Rege-Jean's already attached to The Saint, which is basically Paramount's attempt at doing Bond however. And I guess maybe if that Dungeons & Dragons film inexplicably does well, he'll be busy with that too.

 

While I do like Blanks' idea for Dev and Kaluuya, I'm still beating the drum for Henry Golding, even after Snake Eyes' suckage. I know he's not this incredible actor or anything, but he's got the looks, the swagger, the charisma, and he isn't attached to any big franchise at the moment. I believe he's got what it takes.

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I blame the chains for declined interest in moviegoing. A lot of multiplexes have subpar projection and poor auditorium quality, even after renovations. There's always the risk of an annoying audience too (which tbf I've only experienced once or twice out of 30-ish trips to the theater this year, and both were family films). Depending on the theater, the screen size isn't enough to outweigh sitting at home. It's why PLF sales have been up so much this year. I haven't been to theater in almost two months since I moved back to my parents since it now takes me an hour to drive to a theater that doesn't neglect the overall experience, which isn't worth it on a frequent basis. With shorter theatrical windows, I'm fine waiting a few weeks to see something at home, and plenty of audiences feel the same way.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Re: Dev Patel, a few months ago while promoting The Green Knight he said in an interview that the terrible experience he had with The Last Airbender turned him off from blockbuster cinema. Obviously never say never but we can probably cross him off the list of people in contention to be the next Bond based on that.

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Patel and Kaluuya have strong established careers that don't need to get stalled by Bond identification. Hence why Bond role never went to a Oscar nominees and winners and/or very famous movie stars. Also, actors who already have a strong franchise identification (eg Hiddleston, Hardy) are very likely out of contention. Bond wants you to see Bond. I think, of the suggested, RJP and Golding make most sense because RJP comes from a TV show ("that guy from Bidgerton") and CRA isn't exactly Marvel to identify Golding with the character he played. 

Edited by Valonqar
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Rege-Jean Page feels like a great choice. Young, well-known-but-not-A-list, looks effing fantastic in a tux, and seems effortlessly suave and charming based on his interviews. We don't know if he has the chops for action yet but the guy looks pretty fit... I'm sure it won't be an issue. And different enough from Daniel Craig to feel like a fresh start (not just in looks but would imagine his to be a suaver, smoother Bond). And yes, his being mixed race might rankle a few fans but would likely attract many more younger filmgoers (and the naysayers will come round if the film is good enough anyway - see Casino Royale)

 

0_dunhill-Dylan-Jones-Pre-BAFTA-Dinner-P

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18 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

I went through all the Bonds on Pluto TV the past month to prepare for this new one (and the Craig Bonds of course). It was certainly an interesting experience, even if I only really liked...five of them.

 

Rege-Jean's already attached to The Saint, which is basically Paramount's attempt at doing Bond however. And I guess maybe if that Dungeons & Dragons film inexplicably does well, he'll be busy with that too.

 

While I do like Blanks' idea for Dev and Kaluuya, I'm still beating the drum for Henry Golding, even after Snake Eyes' suckage. I know he's not this incredible actor or anything, but he's got the looks, the swagger, the charisma, and he isn't attached to any big franchise at the moment. I believe he's got what it takes.

Maybe they'll find a way to make a D&D movie work but I'm not optimistic. Still, it's got to turn out better than Mazes and Monsters:

 

 

Hadn't heard about Rege-Jean doing The Saint, but I guess actors can't wait around on the off chance they'll get an offer to be James Bond. Though Roger Moore did manage to end up playing both...

 

*

 

The role of Bond doesn't really require an Oscar caliber actor, especially for a more lighthearted 007, the guy just needs to have a certain charm/charisma. It's a time-consuming role in the prime years for an actor, someone chasing awards shouldn't tie themselves down as the lead of this franchise, James Bond himself is not exactly an acting showcase. 

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